During a lecture at the beginning of this year, which was taught by my 5SterneRedner agency, I introduced my concept of the tsunami. I carried out the main elements of my model and explained how the building blocks of the financial tsunami are mutually reinforcing. And I put forward the hypothesis that the Finazkrise expands faster and faster and that we see only the tip of the iceberg. We talked at the beginning or from any real estate crisis, then the crisis moved into one of the worst banking crises which threatened the entire financial world. Not much later it was the rescue, the European viewed as providing inadequate and we talked about a crisis of confidence. Now we see even the solvency of individual countries at risk and talk of a euro crisis.
I said then to have the problem and said that even turn the euro under pressure. My argument was referring not so much on the exchange rate per se, but rather to the stability of the euro pact. In my opinion we should definitely expect a scenario that States withdraw from the pact € or eliminate it and something like a strong euro and a soft Neuro exist. This is in fact one of the few options, such as states can discard their elegant debts. In addition, little could indebted countries highly indebted to exclude from the € €, creating a hard and a soft Neuro. The advantage of the interest on the hard € would be significantly less than for the soft Neuro.
If I follow the current debate about Ireland, we are quite close to this scenario.
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