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Dogs of the Dow - classic value investing

'm Sorry, I currently study-related very stressed out, but I'm an interesting article on SeekingAlpha found:

Dow Dog Dividend Champions

The described there approach is probably one of the oldest Value stock picking approach and certainly still relevant today and also good on the DAX companies apply (eg one, etc. Note the dividend yields on utilities as a result of uncertainties due to the fuel tax revenue and the resulting price decline).

Those who are interested can approach closer like to ask questions or look around and continue on SeekingAlpha, also write a lot clever (Value) investors their approaches and opinions on various topics.

Regards
Nilz

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insight and outlook for 2011 - the end of the road has not been reached

More and more politicians, not least the President-Herman van Rompuy lifting imploring their voices and call: the euro must be preserved, the break-up of monetary union can be prevented.

what is the knowledge that we should learn from the past 12 months:

first The crisis is not over - just like a tsunami is building a huge wave again, which can meet at any time - we have from the last crisis, too little learned and we are ill prepared for the next wave - we are the first messengers of the shaft in the form of a currency crisis and the persistence of feel banking crisis in Europe - the guarantees provided for the ailing financial institutions such as Hypo Real Estate or Hypo Alpe Adria will not be enough - the states will once again span a Schutzschrim have investors will continue to invest in non-transparent investment vehicles (such as CDS, ETFs, etc lose) -. the end of the story has not been reached.

second The euro is even more pressure come - the unity of the European economy is to transfer to the euro wrong, and even reckless. Never before has a currency hold together an economic area. This is a common task of economic policy. But this is the pressure for reform on countries like Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy but also France and more unlikely. The EU faces a crucial test in a hard currency block, but without the South. Official policy still trying to gloss over the transformation needs and buying by coordinating monitoring and sanctions period. In any case, the fluctuations and thus the uncertainty in the currency markets . Increase

third The current upturn in the stock markets will be of short duration, it is already to some blistering, fueled by the easy money that the central banks worldwide in the last months of the request, but without creating a real value. The flight to the gold currency crisis will continue so on. The taxation of private wealth, especially in the real estate side will grow, the national debt will increase but further. Once promised benefits only against the embittered opposition of the population can be enforced. The gap between the poor and the wealthy will be at the expense of middle class continue to expand. The uncertainty of the population through the policy and thus the negative impact on consumer behavior in the medium term will be reflected in share prices.

is therefore the outlook for 2011 rather clouded. The enormous amounts of money have been pumped into the economic circuit, very slowly from decaying. It was created no additional confidence in the real economy. The current policy of whitewashing and cover-up, coupled with the sins of omission from the last crisis, nourishes the next wave. In the next 12 months leading indicators, it is to keep the eyes so that possible trend reversals in time for to make and to higher volatility in both the equity and focus on the currency markets recognize.

This outlook is like a ride on a super wave - hopefully we all lose their balance and not wake up with bruises and fractures in the clinic. I hope you for 2011!

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Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

I wish all my readers Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! Study Because I could write in the last week, unfortunately, no post or the like, and unfortunately that is probably in the next 1-2 weeks remain so. Maybe I'll find an interesting take occasional newspaper article or comment.

Regards
Nilz

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Wir danken allen Teilnehmer/innen für's mitmachen .
Seid bitte nicht entäuscht,

wenn ihr nicht gewonnen habt.

Es waren wirklich viele schöne Karten dabei.

Aber, es kann nur eine/r gewinnen.

Vielleicht klappt es ja das nächste Mal.

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The competition begins on 7 January 1. 2011

We wish everyone a Merry Christmas
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the true enterprise value estimate

As mentioned previously, the value of a company in the classical economics the discounted value (present value cash value) of all expected future cash flows . Since the subject of business valuation is too extensive and complex, however, I refer here only to different Investopedia article in the most important and most frequently used valuation methods: Dividend

Discount Model
Multistage Dividend Discount Model
Gordon's Dividend Growth Model
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model
Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

course, there are many other models which depend on the discounted cash flow (DCF) orientation, however, the above four are sufficient to at least achieve a thorough assessment approach.

Furthermore, I would encourage anyone seriously interested investors to buy a book or more on this topic because it is really essential in the field of serious investing. Can you give that is not even a forecast of the fair value of an investment, it is with passive investments in the desired regions, industries, etc. served with ETFs much better.

is important to choose the appropriate valuation model, a dividend discount or Dividend Growth Model, for example, makes little sense for companies that are likely in the next 20 years pay no dividends, and the forecasting of future cash flows and growth rates, and the forecast of an appropriate discount rate, and I would recommend all CAPM because it has a well understandable basis. The easiest way is, in my opinion, put together a little Excel spreadsheet to model corporate values.

I am happy to provide any questions!

Regards
Nilz

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Degi Europe - a value pick? JP Morgan builds

The second fund in the history of open-ended funds, were the Degi Europe (WKN: 980 780) in late October after more than 38-year existence of its solution is known, after two years previously been frozen due to a low liquidity ratio was Degi and no shares took back its investors more. The fund is now up to 30 September 2013 completely settled, which means that all property that is located in the Fund are sold and semi-annual distributions of sales and other revenues to the investors, not as would pass sold property to the custodian bank, which, however, given the slow recovery of the Real estate market in Europe is rather unlikely. Interestingly, this fact when one considers that the Degi Europe is listed on several stock exchanges, with the highest sales take place at the Hamburg Stock Exchange. News costs a fraction of the Hamburg Stock Exchange 35 € (13/12/2010, 13 clock).

The question now is how high the (internal) value of a share is and whether an investor is possible from the liquidation of the fund to benefit. As of 10/31/2010 (letzterhältliche data) were 11 direct and 7 held indirectly (through real estate companies) property in the portfolio of Degi Europe, all valued at the date 30.09.2010, or, in two cases, even a more current assessment , which correspond to the stated opinions probably quite well the actual value. The Fund's net assets stood at 1.266 billion 10/31/2010 Euro and the current Net Asset Value (NAV) of a share is € 48.47 (as of 13/12/2010), which represents a premium of just 38.5% to the current price on the Hamburg Stock Exchange. The current liquidity ratio of Degi Europe is just over 35% and the first dividend refers to the investors in January instead . Assuming that about 30% of the NAV at that time be distributed to investors, investors will receive about € 14.54 per share, reflecting both the Fund's net assets and paid on the stock price, similar to a dividend payout and The following ex-dividend quotation to just reduce that amount. This distribution ist bereits mit Liquidität unterlegt und somit weitgehend "sicher". Interessant ist, wieviel Prozent des verbleibenden Nettofondsvermögens durch den Verkauf der Immobilien erlöst werden können und wann diese Beträge an die Anteilseigner zurückfließen. Der Einfachheit halber werde ich im Folgenden davon ausgehen, dass bis zum 30. September 2013 jeweils jährlich ein Drittel des nach der ersten Ausschüttung im Januar verbleibenden NAV an die Anleger ausgeschüttet wird. Unter diesen Voraussetzungen käme man unter verschiedenen Annahmen des erlösbaren Immobilienwertes zu den folgenden Ausschüttungen und jährlichen Vorsteuerrenditen (Internal Rate of Return - IRR) nach der initialen Ausschüttung im Januar 2011:

• NAV: € 48.47
• share price on the Hamburg Stock Exchange (13/12/2010): 35 €
• Estimated Distribution January 2011 (30%): € 14.54
• NAV is reduced to € 33.93
• share price reduced to € 20.46
• 100% recovery rate: 11.31 € per year, annual rate of return (to September 2013): 30.28%
• 90% recovery rate: 10,18 € per year, annual rate of return (to September 2013): 23.05%
• 80% recovery rate: 9,05 € per year, annual rate of return (to September 2013): 15.60%
• 70% recovery rate: 7.92 € per year, annual rate of return (to September 2013): 7.87%

increase these returns are, the faster the remaining real estate assets is paid or the greater the previous dividend amounts are reduced and vice versa. Under the above simplifying assumptions would be investors, the Degi Europe buys at the current rate of 35 € and after the first distribution in January 2011 then by the above estimated amount of the distribution reduced stock price, buys himself a profit of only 70% of the Property value eine stark positive Rendite erwirtschaften, da allerdings alle Immobilien im Portfolio des Degi Europa recht zeitnah bewertet wurden, ist ein Abschlag von 30% auf den aktuellen Wertansatz selbst nach Verkaufsnebenkosten, wie Vorfälligkeitsentschädigungen, Transaktionskosten etc., eher unwahrscheinlich, zumal weiterhin für nicht verkaufte Objekte Mieten fließen werden und der Verkauf der letzten fünf Objekte jeweils zu Preisen über dem letztgeschätzten Wert (dreimal) bzw. Beträgen über 90% (zweimal) dieses Wertes stattfanden.

Insgesamt sieht es also aus, als wäre der Degi Europa zu einem Preis von 35 € an der Börse Hamburg ein Value Pick, allerdings the risks are not just small and everyone must decide for yourself whether he is willing to enter into this.

Regards

Nilz

(This post represents only my opinion and is no recommendation of any kind)

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silver contracts from

Interesting Link of JP Morgan, silver etc

was expected, The hype on the Internet for silver and JP Morgan's obviously just excessive short position and the position is properly hedged and the large short squeeze is probably inevitable.

Regards
Nilz

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The Home Buying Guide - The Home Buyer's Guide


consultants abound on all fields. If you want to purchase a property, a well-qualified home purchase or home sale consultant consultant is the first step to a safe house purchase and thus to ensure a secure retirement.
Please be aware that the really good homes are short the market. This will also confirm any serios Home Buying Guide. It is therefore logical that the most inadequate, bad objects appear longer on the market. The longer the seller will try to tighten up the sales pitch. The chance to acquire a bad property increases also.
Happy the man who now has a home purchase from consultants and professional advice for real estate and can be represented.
The home purchase value of expert consultants will accompany you on the tour, on valuation, damage assessment, the price negotiation to the notary contract. All by one person, your local Home Buying Guide.
What will be new to you, and that's the trick, negotiate your home purchase adviser for the purchase price of the property. And quite dispassionately, in contrast to you, because for the home buying consultants, this is just a business based on his numbers and results from the valuation.

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vs. Value. Growth

As im letzten Beitrag erwähnt ist die Unterscheidung in Growth- und Valueinvestments irrefürrend und meiner Meinung nach schlichtweg falsch, weil alle Growthinvestoren im Prinzip Valueinvestoren sind. Ich würde sogar soweit gehen zu behaupten, dass alle ernsthaften Investoren Valueinvestoren sind.

Hier die Begründung: In der Betriebswirtschaftslehre und in der Unternehmensbewertung besteht absolute Einigkeit darüber, dass der Wert eines Unternehmens dem Barwert (also dem diskontierten Zukunftswert) all seiner zukünftigen Cashflows bis zu seinem Lebensende entspricht. Ernsthafte Investoren, die das Ziel der Vermögensmehrung verfolgen, sind also ständig auf der Suche nach Unternehmen, whose market capitalization is lower than the present value of all future cash flows. This statement corresponds to the classical definition of a value investor, always looking for companies whose intrinsic value (shown just above the company's value or present value of all future cash flows) is greater than the price of the company in the market. Growth investors do anything different. Growth investors also look for companies whose discounted future cash flows are greater than the current market value of the company, which is exactly the same, what value investors also. The only difference is that value investors often companies with lower growth rates, the market sometimes referred to as "unattractive" felt to be looking because they are usually easier to evaluate, while growth investors prefer companies with high growth rates in most recent branches. However, there are many value investors, which just do invest in growth companies , as well as growth investors.

It is therefore differ completely wrong between value and growth investors as a separate investor types, in reality, growth investors only a subset of value investors and is in fact any investor who wants to destroy any money, a value investor!

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Value Investing - The standard definition

The most common definition of value investing, if properly or wrong is another question, is the following: Value Investing the search for stocks which are listed below their intrinsic (internal) value, where the investor uses fundamental analysis. Mostly, these are shares, which were dropped from the market or otherwise considered "unattractive" because the industry in which they operate is very little growth or the like. Value Investors are hereby understands that the price of a share or an entire company (in effect the price of any investments) over the longer term, always to his fundamental "right" value returns and try to match the according to your criteria undervalued stocks to buy and when the price finally dem intrinsischen Wert angepasst hat wieder zu verkaufen.

Immer wieder wird Lesern von verschiedenen Seiten und Medien erzählt, dass es Value- und Growthinvestoren gäbe, wobei zweitere in Wachstumsunternehmen investieren und versuchen auf diese Weise überdurchschnittliche Renditen zu erzielen. Warum eine Unterteilung in Value- und Growthinvesting irreführend und schlichtweg falsch ist und warum praktisch alle ernsthaften Investoren Valueinvestoren sind, werde ich im nächsten Beitrag erläutern.

Viele Grüße
NilZ

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The next few weeks

Neben Kommentaren zum aktuellen Marktgeschehen, wie vorhin bereits an meinem "JP Morgan und das Silber"-Post zu erkennen, wird sich dieser Blog in the coming weeks, the fundamentals of value investing and the investment process of an exemplary Value Investors of Graham and Dodd, the fathers of value investing, turn. After this introduction, I will post my analysis on a regular basis each (value) stocks and other investments and discuss expectations, and I like to respond to questions, etc..

Regards
Nilz

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JP Morgan and the silver

For a long time know that JP Morgan has a very large short position in silver (reported by approximately 3.3 billion ounces, although this figure seems exaggerated, if, for example, the open interest in silver futures on the COMEX look ), this short position is probably in part out of a short position that is passed in the wake of the takeover of Bear Stearns to JPM. At the same time the silver price rises for some time and is now hovering just below $ 30, which greatly increased the pressure on JPM, while contributing to JPM Margin nachschießen do if the position is to remain open.

On 2 November, Max Keiser, a reporter for the Guardian, published an article (under the Guardian website available) that calls to this, with silver stock up in physical form to the silver price still to carry on its recently attained 30-year high and so JPM Morgan to Shortsqueeze zu zwingen, was letztlich den Silberpreis in noch größere Höhen treiben würde und seiner Vermutung nach auch zu einem Zusammenbruch JP Morgans führen würde.

Historisch bewegt sich der Silberpreis in den letzten 35 Jahren in einem Band zwischen 1/40 und 1/80 des Goldpreises, aktuell liegt der Wert bei knapp unter 1/45, was im Verhältnis zu Gold auf eine leichte Überbewertung bei Silber hindeutet und im historischen Kontext eine Gegenbewegung in den Bereich von 1/60 o.ä. erwarten lassen würde. Demgegenüber steht jedoch die Tatsache, dass viele Marktteilnehmer darauf spekulieren, dass JPM sich früher oder später die geshorteten Silberunzen zurückkaufen muss, um ihren Verpflichtungen nachzukommen, therefore be expected in the future with very high volatility in silver prices and investments in this area, on whatever side are connected to a big risk.

I personally like to see the activity on the silver market from the sidelines and post interesting trends here.

Regards
Nilz

(This post represents only my opinion and is no recommendation of any kind)

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Here we go ..

Welcome to my blog! The blog will revolve around themes of value investing, even outside the traditional investment in shares, and other interesting areas of economy and investment.

Greetings
NilZ

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Too good to be true

I find it amusing to read some of the lessons learned from the crisis and the means by which we intend to better handle such crises in the future can be. Unfortunately, this wisdom cover so ever with my research and not with the actual image that we have to take advantage of the crisis.

The first statement that I question is critical, the assumption that there is such thing as systemically important institutions are. Our politicians adhere to their standards that they have saved the financial system. Here's the final verdict is pending. All I could see so far is that the risk of individual owners has been transferred to the general public. The bill was not done without the hosts.

The second proposition, I would even call it deceit, is the one that the euro area can not be resolved. A nice story, but unfortunately not at all true. The idea to issue a European bond and thus the difficulties of individual to solve national budget is absurd and myopic. The risk is much greater. We now delete the fire with gasoline. We derive more and more money into the system rather than money, however painful it may be, again to take from the system. A play with fire.

Finally, this is still the misconception that such a crisis is an event of the century and therefore not easily return. I'm just - too good to be true - described by my model of the tsunami, in my book, is building the next wave on straight. It is therefore not a matter of time, but rather a question of how quickly can the individual elements into one another until we see the next tsunami. I'm afraid even to To bet that all of us will experience this soon and not in 100 years.

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€ or neuro? - The crisis is not over

During a lecture at the beginning of this year, which was taught by my 5SterneRedner agency, I introduced my concept of the tsunami. I carried out the main elements of my model and explained how the building blocks of the financial tsunami are mutually reinforcing. And I put forward the hypothesis that the Finazkrise expands faster and faster and that we see only the tip of the iceberg. We talked at the beginning or from any real estate crisis, then the crisis moved into one of the worst banking crises which threatened the entire financial world. Not much later it was the rescue, the European viewed as providing inadequate and we talked about a crisis of confidence. Now we see even the solvency of individual countries at risk and talk of a euro crisis.

I said then to have the problem and said that even turn the euro under pressure. My argument was referring not so much on the exchange rate per se, but rather to the stability of the euro pact. In my opinion we should definitely expect a scenario that States withdraw from the pact € or eliminate it and something like a strong euro and a soft Neuro exist. This is in fact one of the few options, such as states can discard their elegant debts. In addition, little could indebted countries highly indebted to exclude from the € €, creating a hard and a soft Neuro. The advantage of the interest on the hard € would be significantly less than for the soft Neuro.

If I follow the current debate about Ireland, we are quite close to this scenario.

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search engine optimization (SEO) - Google problems?

Yes, yes abacus has worked well and sent us his report on the optimization. There is a lot of work and a little depressed after all. It seems like there's actually a third party (whether competitors or not), the false reports spread about domains, with the search engines so that they hardly noch auffindbar sind. Für alle Bausachverständigen und unsere Kunden sehr bedauerlich.
Aber solche "Idioten" wird es wohl immer geben, anders kann man sie einfach nicht nennen.

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search engine optimization expert surveyor of value

Zurzeit lassen wir durch die Firma Abakus, einen der führenden Suchmaschinenoptimierer, unseren Internetauftritt "aufmöbeln". Wir versprechen uns schon in kurzer Zeit einen rasanten Anstieg der Zugriffe und somit der Aufträge für unsere Baugutachter.
Vorrangig aber werden Sie, unser Kunde, davon profitieren, denn Sie werden uns besser finden können, die Wege werden kürzer und unser Name wird publik. Das bisherige Netz in Deutschland, Belgien und Luxemburg wird enger geknüpft und die Preise dadurch lower. All in all, a win for all.

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The slogan - something ... the other real estate experts


After several brainstorming sessions to consider proposals and curious, we asked ourselves what our reviewers, experts really different than other? The answer: they are more flexible to go, one on the customer and are based on IS and not on outdated notions, as do many others, unfortunately.
The customer is king, is no expert in value award, but everyday work. Because you can measure us and you should too. And that is why we are the ... something other real estate appraisers.

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surveyor, building surveyor for Munich, Dusseldorf, Dortmund, Kiel, Rostock, Bremen searched


Yes, you have correctly read, we look for buying a house consultant for various locations. Our consultant in Munich, Mr. Berger is leaving us, unfortunately, the year 2010th At this point, many thanks and best wishes for the future.
But besides this, failing that, to be filled, we want to extend ourselves, because the request is large and the Germans have bought homes, as never before. At least it seemed to us.
If this appeal to you as a customer, browse through our website.
For all experts who want to enter into a lucrative partnership with us - please visit our website everything necessary to make contact with us.
Until then, Jan Schwalenberg

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The struggle for resources has begun

5SterneRedner When I had the great opportunity during my keynote speeches at the Investment and Development Bank of Rheinland Pfalz (ISB Bank) to share with me about my business tsunami theory. It was not just a great night for the palate but also for the mind. So I learned a lot about the business Network and the support, the Rheinland Pfalz offers to its small and medium enterprises.

are also some members of the German Trade Commission were present to me confirmed that the war has begun the most important resource. After their display, is one of the primary strategic issues faced by Germany are under high pressure must, access to raw materials for industry. I have experienced such that Germany invests little more in Canada, and enterprises, has the support resources in Canada. In addition, China has been intensively engaged in Africa, also formerly an important destination for German companies. As for Germany I see it as a true challenge for all of Europe. China has secured its growth through direct access to the necessary resources. And what we are doing, we look up to now more or less.

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A ray of hope - to Berlin says banks

Berlin I can only congratulate you for this insight. While it is not for me to understand now what causes the delay in turning to the Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel, but the mindset behind this sensational titling is understandable. Merkel said urgently requires a procedure, to enter into the framework of highly indebted countries in the euro area in bankruptcy. This would mean, ultimately, that write off the debt, led by likely international banks, their claims must.

As I have mentioned several times in my blog, so I think it is essential that banks or even countries can go in an orderly bankruptcy. It makes neither economic nor from the perspective of efficient market sense when creditors met to 100% and the debt to be circulated to the taxpayer. If something has demonstrated the financial crisis, "Too big to fail" is one of the great mistakes of the past decades in economics and one that we should veraltete Konzept endlich über Bord werfen.

Der Zeichner von riskanten  Anleihen  bekommt dadurch eine risikofreie Prämie, schließlich hat  er Zinsen für das eigegangene Risiko als auch 100% Kapitalrückführung am Ende erhalten. Einige wenige profitieren überdurchschnittlich und viele zahlen drauf. Dies erinnert mich frappant   an ein staatlich gefördertes Ponzi Schema, und dies wird von den meisten europäischen Politikern nun auch noch gefördert.

Daher freut es mich, dass sich Frau Angela Merkel für to correct this absurdity to Europe committed level. Only had more politicians that vision!

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bleed "a disaster for the whole world" - the wave is moving again

History seems to repeat itself - as I said in my book "Lost Trust - The tsunami model of the crisis - Goldegg Verlag" have described, there are certain warning signs of financial crises. It is astonishing to me because each believes that the crisis had been overcome. Stock prices are at a high altitude flight, the confidence of investors in the banks appears to be restored.

But the warning signs are back to storm. Who exactly the messages follows the last days, is with these tags konfrontiert werden: "Akt der Verzweiflung" - Zitat der Presse als Japans Notenbank Chef Maasaki Shirakawa den Leitzinssatz von 0,1% auf 0% senkt. Die Wirtschaftswoche titelt in ihrer Oktober Ausgabe (Nr 41 - 11.10.2010) "Ein Desaster für die ganze Welt" - über die lockere Geldpolitik der USA. Entsprechend meinem Modell hat sich die Krise wieder einmal ausgeweitet.

Kurzer Rückblick - zuerst sprachen wir von einer Immobilienkrise. Dannach folgte die Bankenkrise, die zu einer Realkrise und in der Folge sich zu einer Staatskrise  (siehe Griechenland, Spanien, Irland) ausweitete. Nun sprechen wir schon von einer globalen Währungskrise. Wie sie sehen hat die Krise nur ihre Form verändert und weiter an Kraft gewonnen - genau wie es mein Modell voraussagt. Was aber ist die Konsequenz? Nur Geld in das System zu pumpen, wie es derzeit alle Regierungen praktizieren  und die Zinssätze zu senken ist zu kurz gegriffen. Das heizt das System nur noch mehr an. Es wird Zeit, dass wir uns intensiv mit der Frage auseinandersetzen, wie wir wieder Geld aus den System nehmen, sonst fürchte ich wird der nächste Tsunami mit noch zerstörerischer Kraft als bisher auf uns hereinbrechen.

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factor of 5 - Recipe for the global Can you avoid collapse

Hatte heute das Vergnügen Ernst Ulrich von Weizäcker anlässlich einer Podiumsdiskussion über nachhaltiges Wachstum bei der Investoren Konferenz der Ersten Bank in Stegersbach zu hören. Es war ein Vergnügen seinen Ausführungen über "resource productivity versus labour productivity"  zu lauschen.

Umso erstaunter war ich, als von Weizäcker, Einblicke in sein Verständnis der Finanzkrise den Zuhörern gewährte. Er führt aus, dass wir Festland- Europäer unser Verständnis über die Finanzwelt  von David Hume ableiten. Der sah den Menschen als egoistisches Wesen, das nur zu seinem Vorteil handelt. Daher muss der eizelne  von einer übergeordneten Macht, dem Staat kontrolliert werden. Im angelsächsischen Raum   proklamierte then Adam Smith, that this function is performed automatically by the market. As long as state and market in line were so restricted themselves to the same area, the state could also control the market, however, then the market has developed globally, while the control remained regional. Thus began the problem.

This little story confirms Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker my model of the tsunami. A key component of the global network of financial markets, with just the episodes, as described by von Weizsacker. Another component is the immense greed of man. Also as it has recognized David Hume.

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prevent financial crises perhaps? The

On a FMA - Supervisory Conference says OeNB Governor Ewald Nowotny: "The financial world is becoming more complex, the regulatory authorities demand more and more authority, even with an army of guards can be crises not prevent it. "

If this statement as necessary to get there, we could very quickly get to the view that despite increased surveillance to prevent financial crises and therefore can not basically a stricter set of rules is futile. At present my knowledge to work for more than 15 000 civil servants in the various financial market regulators in the EU and the number is surely rising. Whether these officials can really prevent another financial crisis, I highly doubt. However, is clearly established for me - financial crises can be prevented if you know how?

According to my research findings, it is known as building blocks of a crisis. These building blocks are necessary so that a financial crisis can ever make. Recognize early warning signs, you can also consciously to control and intervene so actively in the events. The occurrence of financial crises is indeed inherent in the system are called to: Financial crises are formed in our economic system automatically, but that does not mean that they can not be prevented. If it is possible some
or more blocks to detect at an early stage and consciously counteract this, whether by intervention or by a stringent set of rules, then you reduce the formation of a financial tsunami - so it is a misconception that financial crises , can not be prevented.

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Sep 15 - second anniversary of the Lehman bankruptcy

was now the second anniversary of the Lehman Brothers bust - somehow seems the 15th to September must have grown to my fateful day. This day is similar to the 9 November 1989 or 11 September 2001 etched in my memory. I can not say very well what I have done precisely the time when I learned that Lehman Brothers is bankrupt. could claim as today our politicians that they manage the biggest financial crisis since the 30's and actively protect us from major damage -

more surprising that the lessons from these events is still wrong conclusions are drawn. Here my Meinungnach the last sentence has yet been taken. Anyway, I think the conclusions that are drawn have been from the bankrupt, for just plain wrong. So I see the rules for Basel III and the associated demand for more equity as a sham. would have at least according to Lehman all be clear that liquidity is more important than accounting tricks. The posting of capital that does not actually cash available to more moderate, may indeed soothe an accountant, I do not.

As I had to do even in the case of Kommunalkredit can, even the best equity ratio not save them from bankruptcy, when liquidity is no longer available. I think it should be better than 20 cents per 1 € moderate risk cash deposited with the National Bank, as any equity ratios observed. The absurd idea that banks pose a systemic risk and therefore should not go bankrupt is, after Lehman rethink much bread. As is evident in the Hypo Alpe Adria, it is quite Argumentbierbar that banks and their owners should be held accountable for massive mistakes to account. One need only savings deposits to total assets ratio to look to know how the mortgage is funded. The savings deposit should be guaranteed, however, a bank may go bankrupt. This would not only save many millions of tax, but also those who are called to account that financed the growth.

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in the footsteps of Madoff

During my stay in New York, I met with a business friend. He invited me to dinner. I met him in his office. To my surprise I noted that his office was previously owned by Bernard L. Madoff. Irony of fate - At all events, I have resolved to study the case more closely Madoff for one of my next presentations. 'm Curious what insights I come across.

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in free fall - by Joseph Stiglitz

Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel laureate from 2001 after all, comes in his book "free fall" in much the same conclusions as me. Even for him it is not only the perverse incentives and the crass greed, as is usually claimed, led to the financial crisis. He also raises the question of who or what is to blame for the financial crisis. He comes here to same conclusion as I did in my book "Lost confidence" - in his book he interprets as a "glaring example of market failure and thus for all the nasty failure of the American economic system."

I'm happy of course very much and I confirmed that even Joseph Stiglitz, the cause of the crisis in addition to the human error in the system itself provides. Exactly the same conclusion I have come in my book. I would even go further - on 11/09/1989 with the fall of the Berlin Wall has all come to realize that the pure planned economy has failed as an economic approach - on 15.09.2008, for me it has become clear that the market economy as an economic system has failed. But what comes next and what are the consequences for us all this?

More like this next week

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new movie Wall Street 2

After Two Wall Street will soon hit theaters, I'm curious to see how the story has changed - Gordon Gekko in Wall Street One added: "Greed is good, greed is correct, it clarifies things and greed will be the salvation for Teldar and that other poorly run company.. The United States "

Where has there, we have seen in the last two years - from a real estate crisis (Hypo Real Estate) to a financial crisis (bailout for the banks) as a world economic crisis (economic stimulus) up to a crisis of confidence (€ weakness).

amazing thing is that we still speak of a crisis that seems to be manageable. My research shows, however, in a slightly different direction. The development seems to be inherent in the system and has, in my opinion, began in the 80s made the last century.

Now I am curious what would say to the un Reggiseur Two of Wall Street ....

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help in buying a home - that must be!

Das Lebensziel Nummer 1 fast aller Deutschen ist ein Eigenheim. Manche bauen selbst. Viele erwerben ein schon bestehendes Haus, weil das Umfeld schon gewachsen and no more site.
Should I act quickly? The
can bring disadvantages. Think and plan well, for a real estate financing is very expensive and you do not yet fall into a trap.
I need help from a specialist?
Answer: Always. Even when buying a car you can support - and in a house 20 or 30 times as expensive, no? This logic is to be understood. Take yourself to a professional whose daily bread is to assess real estate. Meanwhile, these professionals even at a professional price negotiation with the owner and the broker.
I visit right?
often see the residential properties on both the Paper and on the ground very well made, but often takes place just a superficial inspection. Where should we also know that one should see. Obviously, we still see, but what many hidden defects? So
but the company of a professional man / woman?
Can you see if doors or windows are leaking and whether the insulation is not already broken? Therefore should always be a specialist / woman to be there, which the property, check with the appropriate technology, through its paces.
Can I buy a property but with defects and damage?
That depends on the amount and intensity. If the work to be done are to be represented by you and der Kaufpreis der Situation angepasst wurde – warum nicht? Fragt sich, wann der Kaufpreis angepasst ist und das kann Ihnen nur ein Fachmann/frau erklären und berechnen. Sie können dann immer noch entscheiden, ob Sie die Immobilie kaufen möchten. Wer beim Immobilienkauf auf den Profi verzichtet, spart auf jeden Fall am falschen Ende, weil die Folgen eines Fehlkaufs auch in einer Privatinsolvenz enden könnten.
Wo finde ich so einen Profi?
Ein Service, der mit seinen Gutachtern und Bausachverständigen schon seit Jahren bundesweit arbeitet, ist www.wertexperte.de. Kurzer Anruf oder Mail und der zuständige Profi ruft kurzfristig zurück. Oft sind auch Besichtigungstermine am Wochenende möglich.

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