insight and outlook for 2011 - the end of the road has not been reached More and more politicians, not least the President-Herman van Rompuy lifting imploring their voices and call: the euro must be preserved, the break-up of monetary union can be prevented.
what is the knowledge that we should learn from the past 12 months:
first The crisis is not over - just like a tsunami is building a huge wave again, which can meet at any time - we have from the last crisis, too little learned and we are ill prepared for the next wave - we are the first messengers of the shaft in the form of a currency crisis and the persistence of feel banking crisis in Europe - the guarantees provided for the ailing financial institutions such as Hypo Real Estate or Hypo Alpe Adria will not be enough - the states will once again span a Schutzschrim have investors will continue to invest in non-transparent investment vehicles (such as CDS, ETFs, etc lose) -. the end of the story has not been reached.
second The euro is even more pressure come - the unity of the European economy is to transfer to the euro wrong, and even reckless. Never before has a currency hold together an economic area. This is a common task of economic policy. But this is the pressure for reform on countries like Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy but also France and more unlikely. The EU faces a crucial test in a hard currency block, but without the South. Official policy still trying to gloss over the transformation needs and buying by coordinating monitoring and sanctions period. In any case, the fluctuations and thus the uncertainty in the currency markets . Increase
third The current upturn in the stock markets will be of short duration, it is already to some blistering, fueled by the easy money that the central banks worldwide in the last months of the request, but without creating a real value. The flight to the gold currency crisis will continue so on. The taxation of private wealth, especially in the real estate side will grow, the national debt will increase but further. Once promised benefits only against the embittered opposition of the population can be enforced. The gap between the poor and the wealthy will be at the expense of middle class continue to expand. The uncertainty of the population through the policy and thus the negative impact on consumer behavior in the medium term will be reflected in share prices.
is therefore the outlook for 2011 rather clouded. The enormous amounts of money have been pumped into the economic circuit, very slowly from decaying. It was created no additional confidence in the real economy. The current policy of whitewashing and cover-up, coupled with the sins of omission from the last crisis, nourishes the next wave. In the next 12 months leading indicators, it is to keep the eyes so that possible trend reversals in time for to make and to higher volatility in both the equity and focus on the currency markets recognize.
This outlook is like a ride on a super wave - hopefully we all lose their balance and not wake up with bruises and fractures in the clinic. I hope you for 2011!
